Oil Production Falls as Nigeria, Libya, And Venezuela Weigh Down OPEC+ Output Targets

Crude oil production in Nigeria, Libya, and Venezuela declined in October, dragging down output levels across the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), despite efforts to boost supply.

According to a Reuters report on Tuesday, OPEC’s overall production increased by only 30,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October — a significant slowdown compared to the 330,000 bpd growth recorded in September. This modest rise fell short of expectations set by earlier agreements to expand output.

Data from OPEC’s October Monthly Oil Market Report, cited by Channels Television, revealed that Nigeria’s crude output, which had fluctuated between 1.3 and 1.4 million bpd from January to June 2025, briefly rose to 1.5 million bpd in July before dropping again to 1.4 million in August and 1.3 million in September.

The Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), Bayo Ojulari, linked the recent decline to disputes involving the Dangote Refinery and unions — specifically the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers and the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria.

Meanwhile, oil prices slipped on Wednesday amid a stronger U.S. dollar and broader market weakness as traders reassessed supply conditions. Brent crude futures dropped by six cents (0.1%) to $64.38 per barrel at 5:08 a.m. WAT — a near two-week low. U.S. West Texas Intermediate declined by 10 cents (0.17%) to $60.46 per barrel, while the OPEC Basket dipped by 0.26 cents (0.39%) to $66.72.

Analysts noted that bearish market sentiment and a flight to safe-haven assets weighed on oil prices. “Crude oil is trading lower as risk sentiment turned sharply negative, strengthening the U.S. dollar and putting pressure on prices,” said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore. ANZ analysts also observed that investors had “moved out of energy markets amid growing risk aversion.”

Additional downward pressure came after the American Petroleum Institute reported an increase in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending October 31.

On the supply side, OPEC+ confirmed plans to raise production by 137,000 bpd in December but indicated that further increases would be paused during the first quarter of 2026. Analysts at LSEG, however, warned that the pause was “unlikely to provide significant support to oil prices in November and December.”