UNICEF Warns Funding Cuts Could Put Over One Million Children at Risk of HIV By 2040

Global progress in the fight against Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) over the past three decades is now under threat, as new analysis warns that ongoing funding cuts could reverse years of achievements and endanger millions of children.

A report by UNAIDS, UNICEF, and Avenir Health highlights that disruptions in financing could lead to a surge in new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths among children worldwide.

In Nigeria, HIV remains a significant public health challenge, with an estimated two million people currently living with the virus. According to the National Agency for the Control of AIDS (NACA), the country has an HIV prevalence of 1.3 per cent and the highest number of people living with HIV in West and Central Africa. In 2024, the Christian Council of Nigeria noted that approximately 160,000 children live with HIV in the country, yet only 45,000 are receiving treatment.

The report emphasizes that, despite more than 30 years of collective action, recent funding reductions have slowed progress. Every day, new mothers acquire HIV during pregnancy or breastfeeding, putting their infants at increased risk of infection. Many children are still born without timely access to testing or treatment, a gap that has widened following major funding disruptions in 2025.

In a best-case scenario, where adequate resources are mobilized, the report indicates that hundreds of thousands of paediatric infections could be prevented.

“With sufficient resources to reach global targets, 410,000 HIV infections and 520,000 AIDS-related deaths in children could be averted by 2040,” the report states.

However, if current trends continue, the consequences are projected to be severe.

“At the current pace, the world could see 1.9 million new HIV infections and 990,000 AIDS-related deaths in children,” it warns.

Under a worst-case scenario, defined by a 50 per cent reduction in programme coverage, an additional 1.1 million children could acquire HIV and 820,000 more could die from AIDS-related illnesses by 2040.

The report underscores that without renewed global commitment, coverage of life-saving interventions will continue to decline, inevitably leading to preventable infections and deaths.

“Adequate resources would sustain prevention of vertical transmission, maintain antiretroviral therapy for women and children, and keep other high-impact HIV services accessible. If funding cuts persist, service delivery will weaken, and more children will be born without protection or treatment,” the report states.

Experts have also raised concerns about the impact of halted foreign aid, including reductions in US support through PEPFAR, which has historically provided testing and medicines to prevent and treat HIV/AIDS for over 20.6 million people globally.

In Nigeria, continued funding disruptions could affect the availability of drugs and testing kits, threatening the country’s progress toward ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.