OPEC Report Indicates Nigeria Falling Short of Crude Oil Production Targets Again

Nigeria’s average crude oil production inched up to 1.401 million barrels per day in October 2025, according to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Monthly Oil Market Report released on Wednesday.

The figure represents a small increase from 1.39 million barrels per day in September but remains below the country’s OPEC production quota of approximately 1.5 million barrels per day. This marks the third consecutive month Nigeria has failed to meet its assigned target, the last shortfall occurring in July 2025.

The underproduction comes as the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, plans to request a higher OPEC quota at the organisation’s upcoming meeting. Lokpobiri stated that the current quota no longer reflects Nigeria’s true production capacity and that the country will make a case for an increase to at least two million barrels per day.

“The OPEC quota is reviewed periodically, and at the upcoming annual meeting, we will push for a higher allocation for Nigeria. Now is the right time to make the case for a quota of two million barrels per day or more,” the minister said.

OPEC data indicate that Nigeria averaged 1.444 million barrels per day in the third quarter, down from 1.481 million barrels in the second quarter and 1.468 million barrels in the first quarter. The numbers reflect ongoing challenges in maintaining stable production, despite government initiatives and new upstream investments.

Globally, OPEC reported that oil supply in October exceeded demand by 500,000 barrels per day, reversing the 400,000-barrel deficit recorded in September. The increase was driven mainly by non-OPEC producers, with the United States contributing more than half of the 890,000-barrel rise in global output.

The report highlights the balance the market is trying to achieve between slowing global demand growth and steady production increases from non-OPEC countries, which has kept oil prices volatile, fluctuating between $82 and $86 per barrel in recent weeks.

Monthly production figures in Nigeria showed further volatility, with output peaking at 1.529 million barrels per day in April before gradually declining to 1.401 million barrels per day by September. These fluctuations underscore persistent operational and sectoral challenges, despite efforts to boost production and attract investment in the upstream oil sector.