CBN Projects Petrol Price at About N905 Per Litre This Year

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that petrol pump prices will hover around N950 per litre in 2026, according to its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria.

In outlining its baseline projections for the domestic economy, the apex bank said its forecast is based on several key assumptions, including an average crude oil price of $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026. The outlook also assumes an average exchange rate of N1,451.63 per dollar in Q4 2025 and N1,400 per dollar in 2026, supported by improvements in the foreign exchange market, higher capital inflows, a current account surplus, and broader economic recovery.

The CBN further assumed that Nigeria’s domestic crude oil production would average about 1.5 million barrels per day throughout the forecast period. Based on these conditions, the price of premium motor spirit is expected to remain around N950 per litre, a level higher than current pump prices.

According to the bank, government spending is projected to align with the 2025–2027 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper, reflecting an expansionary fiscal stance aimed at supporting the government’s $1 trillion economy target. Monetary policy assumptions include a Monetary Policy Rate of 27 per cent and a Cash Reserve Ratio of 45 per cent, alongside improving business confidence and stronger investor sentiment.

Recent developments in the downstream sector have influenced current fuel prices. Petrol previously sold at around N900 per litre or higher before the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reduced its gantry price from N828 to N699 per litre in December. Following the adjustment, partner outlets began retailing petrol at N739 per litre, prompting wider price reductions across the market.

Since commencing operations in 2024, the Dangote refinery has consistently lowered petrol prices, a move that industry observers say has come at significant cost to both refiners and fuel importers.

Earlier this week, the refinery warned that petrol prices could climb as high as N1,400 per litre if Nigeria were to depend solely on imports. The company said large-scale domestic refining has played a critical role in stabilising fuel prices in the post-subsidy environment, cautioning that unchecked importation could drive prices sharply higher.

In its outlook, the CBN noted that increased private-sector investment, particularly in domestic refining, is expected to strengthen economic growth in 2026. The bank said higher crude oil production, supported by improved security around oil assets and expanded refining capacity, alongside stable energy prices, would further boost growth prospects.

Despite projecting petrol prices at around N950 per litre, the CBN expressed optimism that increased competition among midstream operators would help moderate prices over time. The bank also forecast that headline inflation would ease to 12.94 per cent in 2026, down from an estimated 21.26 per cent in 2025.

The expected decline in inflation, the CBN said, would be driven largely by lower food and petrol prices, as competition intensifies within the petroleum value chain.

Globally, the apex bank projected a moderation in commodity prices in 2026, with overall prices expected to decline by 5.52 per cent due to weaker demand and improved supply. Energy prices are forecast to fall by 6.99 per cent, as Brent crude is projected to average about $61 per barrel.

In addition, metal prices (excluding precious metals) are expected to decline by 3.29 per cent, while agricultural commodity prices are projected to fall by 3.18 per cent, reflecting easing supply pressures and subdued global demand.