NBS Engages Stakeholders Ahead of December Inflation Data Release

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is preparing to hold a stakeholder engagement ahead of the release of Nigeria’s December inflation data.

The meeting is scheduled for Monday, coming amid widespread projections that the recent disinflationary trend may pause temporarily in December due to year-end spending pressures and diminishing base-year effects.

Several analysts have forecast a short-term rise in inflation at the close of the year. CardinalStone, for instance, projected headline inflation at 32.07 per cent, noting that the increase is expected to be temporary and likely to reverse in January 2026. Similarly, Coronation Asset Management anticipates a break in the current disinflationary trend in December, largely attributing the expected rise to base-year effects.

In its macroeconomic update, Coronation explained that inflation is projected to rise sharply at year-end, mainly due to statistical base effects. On a month-on-month basis, the firm expects headline inflation to edge higher, driven by festive-season demand, increased transport activity linked to holiday travel, and continued cost pass-through from logistics and service-sector prices. It also noted that food prices are likely to face upward pressure due to tighter supplies, insecurity in key food-producing regions, and increased consumption during the festive period.

AIICO Capital, in a separate macroeconomic update released ahead of the inflation data, also projected that the combination of base-year effects and festive spending would interrupt the disinflationary trend in December. The firm expects headline inflation to fall within the range of 31.4 to 32.4 per cent year-on-year.

According to AIICO Capital, its outlook is based on the impact of base-year effects on headline, core, and food inflation, alongside seasonal spending patterns. The firm projected that core inflation would ease slightly on a month-on-month basis to between 1.0 and 1.2 per cent, while rising sharply year-on-year to between 32.50 and 32.60 per cent. The expected month-on-month moderation is linked to the appreciation of the naira and a decline in petrol prices during December. The naira strengthened at the official market, while average petrol prices fell significantly following a reduction in gantry prices by Dangote Refinery.

In a call for stakeholder participation, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) noted that inflation remains one of the most closely watched macroeconomic indicators globally. It observed that following the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 2025, inflation moderated to 14 per cent in November 2025. However, it acknowledged growing expectations that the December inflation figure could record an apparent spike due to base effects associated with inflation calculations.

The NESG emphasised that such a spike would not necessarily indicate a deterioration in underlying economic conditions but would instead reflect methodological factors. It warned that misunderstanding these dynamics could increase uncertainty, undermine confidence in official statistics, and complicate policy and business decisions.

The group stressed that, as the custodian of Nigeria’s official inflation data, the NBS has a critical role in promoting transparency, methodological clarity, and confidence in CPI figures. It therefore underscored the importance of engaging stakeholders ahead of the December 2025 inflation release to discuss inflation trends, data interpretation, and expectations, as well as to clearly communicate how the results should be understood.

Earlier in 2025, the NBS rebased the Consumer Price Index, updating the price reference period to 2024 from 2019. The bureau explained that the rebasing was necessary to better reflect current price dynamics and provide a more accurate picture of economic trends in Nigeria.