Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Drops to 18.02%, First Time Below 20% in Three Years

Nigeria’s inflation rate fell to 18.02% in September 2025, marking a 2.1 percentage point drop from 20.12% in August 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

This is the first time in three years that the country’s inflation rate has dropped below 20%, and it also marks the sixth consecutive monthly decline since April 2025.

The latest figures were released in the NBS’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September 2025, published on Wednesday.

While economists and analysts welcomed the continued decline in inflation, many cautioned that consumer purchasing power remains weak. They also noted that the current rate is still significantly above the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) long-term inflation target of 9%.

According to the NBS report:

“In September 2025, the headline inflation rate eased to 18.02% from 20.12% in August 2025, reflecting a 2.1 percentage point decline. Year-on-year, this represents a significant drop of 14.68 percentage points from the 32.7% recorded in September 2024.”

On a month-on-month basis, inflation was slightly lower at 0.72% in September, compared to 0.74% in August, indicating a modest slowdown in the pace of price increases.

“This suggests that the rate of increase in average prices was lower in September than in the previous month,” the NBS explained.

Food Inflation Falls Sharply

Food inflation, a major driver of headline inflation, also saw a notable decline. The rate dropped by 5.0 percentage points to 16.87% in September, down from 21.87% in August 2025. The decrease was attributed to falling prices of key staples including maize, garri, beans, millet, potatoes, onions, eggs, tomatoes, and fresh pepper.

On a year-on-year basis, food inflation was 20.9 percentage points lower than the 37.77% recorded in September 2024.

Month-on-month, the food inflation rate was -1.57% in September, a significant drop of 3.22 percentage points compared to 1.65% in August.

Regional Breakdown of Food Inflation (YoY)

The NBS data also provided a state-by-state breakdown of food inflation on a year-on-year basis:

• Highest increases were recorded in:
  • Ekiti – 28.68%
  • Rivers – 24.18%
  • Nasarawa – 22.74%
• Lowest increases were seen in:
  • Bauchi – 2.81%
  • Niger – 8.38%
  • Anambra – 8.41%

Despite the downward trend, analysts stress that inflation remains a major concern, especially for low-income households, and called for continued policy focus on stabilizing food supply chains and improving local production to sustain the gains.